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Upstart (UPST) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Upstart Holdings UPST is slated to release fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 14.

For the fourth quarter of 2022, Upstart expects revenues between $125 million and $145 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is pegged at $132.13 million, suggesting a decline of 56.66% from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus mark for the bottom line has been unchanged at a loss of 48 cents per share over the past week, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 153.93%.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

For the fourth quarter, Upstart’s top-line growth is expected to have suffered from funding constraints in the marketplace. Growing inflation and higher interest rates are also expected to have hurt top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

Challenging macroeconomic conditions are expected to have helped in increasing the default rate, which is detrimental for Upstart’s business. The company expects net interest income of roughly negative $25 million in the to-be-reported quarter.

Upstart reported net interest income of negative $22.1 million in the third quarter of 2022. UPST decreased the current loan approval rates to keep the default risk in check.

However, Upstart’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its focus on AI, which is the future of lending industry. Its expanding retail footprint particularly in auto retail is expected to have benefited top-line growth.

Upstart’s strategy to offer small-dollar loans is also expected to have expanded its footprint among borrowers.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Upstart has an Earnings ESP of -18.75% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:

Salesforce (CRM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Salesforce shares have declined 19.1% in the past year. CRM is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 1.

Cambium Networks (CMBM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Cambium shares have declined 9.2% in the past year. CMBM is set to report its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 16.

Airbnb (ABNB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.10% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Airbnb shares have declined 35.9% in the past year. ABNB is set to report its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 14.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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